Spatial analysis for risk assessment of dengue in Spain.

INTRODUCTION: The establishment of Aedes albopictus in new areas in Europe has changed the risk of local dengue transmission represented by imported human cases. The risk of transmission is determined by the distribution of travelers arriving from dengue-endemic areas and the distribution of Ae. albopictus as potential vectors of dengue in Spain. METHODS: Environmental, entomological, epidemiological, demographic, tourism and travel data were analyzed to produce a series of maps to represent: the distribution of Ae. albopictus across municipalities; the risk of expansion of Ae. albopictus based on a species distribution model; the calculated index of travelers from dengue-endemic areas (IDVZE) per province; the percentage contribution of each municipality to the total number of cases in Spain. The maps were then added using map algebra, to profile the spatial risk of autochthonous dengue in Spain at a municipal level from 2016 to 2018. RESULTS: Ae. albopictus was detected in 983 municipalities. The calculated IDVZE varied from 0.23 to 10.38, with the highest IDVZE observed in Madrid. The overall risk of autochthonous cases oscillated between 0.234 and 115, with the very high risk and high risk areas detected in the Mediterranean region, mainly in the Levantine coast and some parts of the Balearic Islands. Most of the interior of the peninsula was characterized as low risk. CONCLUSION: Prevention and control measures to mitigate the risk of autochthonous dengue should be prioritized for municipalities in the high risk areas integrating early detection of imported dengue cases and vector control.

Assessing the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Spain, 30 August 2020 to 31 January 2021.

BackgroundAfter a national lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, regional governments implemented different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the second wave.AimTo analyse which implemented NPIs significantly impacted effective reproduction number (Rt) in seven Spanish provinces during 30 August 2020-31 January 2021.MethodsWe coded each NPI and levels of stringency with a 'severity index' (SI) and computed a global SI (mean of SIs per six included interventions). We performed a Bayesian change point analysis on the Rt curve of each province to identify possible associations with global SI variations. We fitted and compared several generalised additive models using multimodel inference, to quantify the statistical effect on Rt of the global SI (stringency) and the individual SIs (separate effect of NPIs).ResultsThe global SI had a significant lowering effect on the Rt (mean: 0.16 ± 0.05 units for full stringency). Mandatory closing times for non-essential businesses, limited gatherings, and restricted outdoors seating capacities (negative) as well as curfews (positive) were the only NPIs with a significant effect. Regional mobility restrictions and limited indoors seating capacity showed no effect. Our results were consistent with a 1- to 3-week-delayed Rt as a response variable.ConclusionWhile response measures implemented during the second COVID-19 wave contributed substantially to a decreased reproduction number, the effectiveness of measures varied considerably. Our findings should be considered for future interventions, as social and economic consequences could be minimised by considering only measures proven effective.

Botulism in Spain: Epidemiology and Outcomes of Antitoxin Treatment, 1997-2019.

BACKGROUND: Botulism is a low incidence but potentially fatal infectious disease caused by neurotoxins produced mainly by Clostridium botulinum. There are different routes of acquisition, food-borne and infant/intestinal being the most frequent presentation, and antitoxin is the treatment of choice in all cases. In Spain, botulism is under surveillance, and case reporting is mandatory. METHODS: This retrospective study attempts to provide a more complete picture of the epidemiology of botulism in Spain from 1997 to 2019 and an assessment of the treatment, including the relationship between a delay in antitoxin administration and the length of hospitalization using the Cox proportional hazards test and Kruskal-Wallis test, and an approach to the frequency of adverse events, issues for which no previous national data have been published. RESULTS: Eight of the 44 outbreaks were associated with contaminated commercial foods involving ≤7 cases/outbreak; preserved vegetables were the main source of infection, followed by fish products; early antitoxin administration significantly reduces the hospital stay, and adverse reactions to the antitoxin affect around 3% of treated cases.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Mortality in Spain: Monitoring Excess Mortality (MoMo) and the Surveillance of Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths.

Measuring mortality has been a challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we compared the results from the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system (MoMo) of excess mortality estimates, using a time series analysis, with those obtained for the confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE). The excess mortality estimated at the beginning of March 2020 was much greater than what has been observed in previous years, and clustered in a very short time. The cumulated excess mortality increased with age. In the first epidemic wave, the excess mortality estimated by MoMo was 1.5 times higher than the confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported to RENAVE, but both estimates were similar in the following pandemic waves. Estimated excess mortality and confirmed COVID-19 mortality rates were geographically distributed in a very heterogeneous way. The greatest increase in mortality that has taken place in Spain in recent years was detected early by MoMo, coinciding with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. MoMo is able to identify risk situations for public health in a timely manner, relying on mortality in general as an indirect indicator of various important public health problems.

Infection fatality risk for SARS-CoV-2 in community dwelling population of Spain: nationwide seroepidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the infection fatality risk for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), based on deaths with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) and excess deaths from all causes. DESIGN: Nationwide seroepidemiological study. SETTING: First wave of covid-19 pandemic in Spain. PARTICIPANTS: Community dwelling individuals of all ages. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was overall, and age and sex specific, infection fatality risk for SARS-CoV-2 (the number of covid-19 deaths and excess deaths divided by the estimated number of SARS-CoV-2 infections) in the community dwelling Spanish population. Deaths with laboratory confirmed covid-19 were obtained from the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE) and excess all cause deaths from the Monitoring Mortality System (MoMo), up to 15 July 2020. SARS-CoV-2 infections in Spain were derived from the estimated seroprevalence by a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay for IgG antibodies in 61 098 participants in the ENE-COVID nationwide seroepidemiological survey between 27 April and 22 June 2020. RESULTS: The overall infection fatality risk was 0.8% (19 228 of 2.3 million infected individuals, 95% confidence interval 0.8% to 0.9%) for confirmed covid-19 deaths and 1.1% (24 778 of 2.3 million infected individuals, 1.0% to 1.2%) for excess deaths. The infection fatality risk was 1.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0% to 1.2%) to 1.4% (1.3% to 1.5%) in men and 0.6% (0.5% to 0.6%) to 0.8% (0.7% to 0.8%) in women. The infection fatality risk increased sharply after age 50, ranging from 11.6% (8.1% to 16.5%) to 16.4% (11.4% to 23.2%) in men aged 80 or more and from 4.6% (3.4% to 6.3%) to 6.5% (4.7% to 8.8%) in women aged 80 or more. CONCLUSION: The increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk after age 50 appeared to be more noticeable in men than in women. Based on the results of this study, fatality from covid-19 was greater than that reported for other common respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza.

Social inequalities in tobacco-attributable mortality in Spain. The intersection between age, sex and educational level.

INTRODUCTION: First study of social inequalities in tobacco-attributable mortality (TAM) in Spain considering the joint influence of sex, age, and education (intersectional perspective). METHODS: Data on all deaths due to cancer, cardiometabolic and respiratory diseases among people aged ≥35 years in 2016 were obtained from the Spanish Statistical Office. TAM was calculated based on sex-, age- and education-specific smoking prevalence, and on sex-, age- and disease-specific relative risks of death for former and current smokers vs lifetime non-smokers. As inequality measures, the relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated using Poisson regression. The RII is interpreted as the relative risk of mortality between the lowest and the highest educational level, and the SII as the absolute difference in mortality. RESULTS: The crude TAM rate was 55 and 334 per 100,000 in women and men, respectively. Half of these deaths occurred among people with the lowest educational level (27% of the population). The RII for total mortality was 0.39 (95%CI: 0.35-0.42) in women and 1.61 (95%CI: 1.55-1.67) in men. The SII was -41 and 111 deaths per 100,000, respectively. Less-educated women aged <55 years and men (all ages) showed an increased mortality risk; nonetheless, less educated women aged ≥55 had a reduced risk. CONCLUSIONS: TAM is inversely associated with educational level in men and younger women, and directly associated with education in older women. This could be explained by different smoking patterns. Appropriate tobacco control policies should aim to reduce social inequalities in TAM.

Desigualdades sociales en la mortalidad cardiovascular en España desde una perspectiva interseccional / Social inequalities in cardiovascular mortality in Spain from an intersectional perspective

INTRODUCCIÓN Y OBJETIVOS: El sexo, la edad y el nivel de estudios, entre otros factores, interaccionan e influyen sobre la mortalidad. En España aún no se ha analizado de manera comprehensiva las desigualdades sociales en la mortalidad cardiovascular considerando la influencia conjunta del sexo, la edad y el nivel de estudios (perspectiva interseccional). MÉTODOS: Estudio de todos los fallecidos en España ≥ 30 años durante 2015 (datos del Instituto Nacional de Estadística) por enfermedad cardiovascular total, cardiopatía isquémica, insuficiencia cardiaca y enfermedad cerebrovascular. El índice relativo de desigualdad (IRD) y el índice de desigualdad de la pendiente (IDP) se estimaron mediante modelos de regresión de Poisson utilizando mortalidad ajustada por edad; el IRD se interpreta como el riesgo relativo de mortalidad entre el nivel de estudios más bajo y el más alto, y el IDP como la diferencia absoluta de mortalidad. RESULTADOS: El IRD en mortalidad por enfermedad cardiovascular total fue 1,88 (IC95%, 1,80-1,96) en mujeres y 1,44 (IC95%, 1,39-1,49) en varones. Los IDP fueron 178,46 y 149,43 muertes/100.000 respectivamente. Las mayores desigualdades se observaron en cardiopatía isquémica e insuficiencia cardiaca en mujeres más jóvenes, con IRD> 4. No hubo diferencias entre sexos en desigualdades por enfermedad cerebrovascular. CONCLUSIONES: La mortalidad cardiovascular está inversamente asociada con el nivel educativo. Esta desigualdad afecta más a la mortalidad prematura por causas cardiacas, especialmente entre mujeres. Su monitorización podría orientar la Estrategia de Salud Cardiovascular del Sistema Nacional de Salud, para reducir la desigualdad en la primera causa de muerte

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: There is an interaction between age, sex, and educational level, among other factors, that influences mortality. To date, no studies in Spain have comprehensively analyzed social inequalities in cardiovascular mortality by considering the joint influence of age, sex, and education (intersectional perspective). METHODS: Study of all deaths due to all-cause cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and cerebrovascular disease among people aged ≥ 30 years in Spain in 2015. Data were obtained from the Spanish Office of Statistics. The relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated by using Poisson regression models with age-adjusted mortality. The RII is interpreted as the relative risk of mortality between the lowest and the highest educational level, and the SII as the absolute difference in mortality. RESULTS: The RII for all-cause cardiovascular mortality was 1.88 (95%CI, 1.80-1.96) in women and 1.44 (95%CI, 1.39-1.49) in men. The SII was 178.46 and 149.43 deaths per 100 000, respectively. The greatest inequalities were observed in ischemic heart disease and heart failure in younger women, with a RII higher than 4. There were no differences between sexes in inequalities due to cerebrovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular mortality is inversely associated with educational level. This inequality mostly affects premature mortality due to cardiac causes, especially among women. Monitoring this problem could guide the future Cardiovascular Health Strategy in the National Health System, to reduce inequality in the first cause of death

Spatial and temporal trends of Mediterranean spotted fever in Spain, 2005-2015.

BACKGROUND: Mediterranean spotted fever (MSF) is a zoonotic disease caused by Rickettsia conorii and transmitted by Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato. The aim of this study is to understand the epidemiology and trends regarding the disease in Spain, based on notifications to the Spanish National Epidemiology Surveillance Network (RENAVE) and the National Hospital Discharge Database (CMBD) between 2005 and 2015. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective cross-sectional study of the cases and the outbreaks reported to the RENAVE and of those found in the CMBD between January 1st, 2005 and December 31st, 2015. We studied the characteristics of the cases and analyzed their spatio-temporal distribution. RESULTS: 1603 cases notified to the RENAVE and 1789 cases registered in the CMBD were analyzed. The most affected group were men between 45 and 64. There were 8 MSF outbreaks during the study period. RENAVE registered lower rates until 2012, when it was decided that MSF in Spain would become a notifiable disease. Across the temporal series we saw that there was seasonality with an increase in cases in summer, and an overall upward trend according to the RENAVE data and descending according to the CMBD. The geographic distribution was heterogeneous throughout the territory, with maximum rates in La Rioja at 1.87 cases and 2.01 cases per 100,000 inhabitants according to the RENAVE and the CMBD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It is of great importance to continue monitoring the disease since it appears to be endemic throughout Spain. There is a need for a common strategy on monitoring and reporting, which would facilitate a more accurate picture on the MSF epidemiological scenario. Entomological information will be of added value.

Social inequalities in cardiovascular mortality in Spain from an intersectional perspective.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: There is an interaction between age, sex, and educational level, among other factors, that influences mortality. To date, no studies in Spain have comprehensively analyzed social inequalities in cardiovascular mortality by considering the joint influence of age, sex, and education (intersectional perspective). METHODS: Study of all deaths due to all-cause cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and cerebrovascular disease among people aged ≥ 30 years in Spain in 2015. Data were obtained from the Spanish Office of Statistics. The relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII) were calculated by using Poisson regression models with age-adjusted mortality. The RII is interpreted as the relative risk of mortality between the lowest and the highest educational level, and the SII as the absolute difference in mortality. RESULTS: The RII for all-cause cardiovascular mortality was 1.88 (95%CI, 1.80-1.96) in women and 1.44 (95%CI, 1.39-1.49) in men. The SII was 178.46 and 149.43 deaths per 100 000, respectively. The greatest inequalities were observed in ischemic heart disease and heart failure in younger women, with a RII higher than 4. There were no differences between sexes in inequalities due to cerebrovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular mortality is inversely associated with educational level. This inequality mostly affects premature mortality due to cardiac causes, especially among women. Monitoring this problem could guide the future Cardiovascular Health Strategy in the National Health System, to reduce inequality in the first cause of death.

Climatic Factors and Influenza Transmission, Spain, 2010-2015.

The spatio-temporal distribution of influenza is linked to variations in meteorological factors, like temperature, absolute humidity, or the amount of rainfall. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between influenza activity, and meteorological variables in Spain, across five influenza seasons: 2010-2011 through to 2014-2015 using generalized linear negative binomial mixed models that we calculated the weekly influenza proxies, defined as the weekly influenza-like illness rates, multiplied by the weekly proportion of respiratory specimens that tested positive for influenza. The results showed an association between influenza transmission and dew point and cumulative precipitation. In increase in the dew point temperature of 5 degrees produces a 7% decrease in the Weekly Influenza Proxy (RR 0.928, IC: 0.891-0.966), and while an increase of 10 mm in weekly rainfall equates to a 17% increase in the Weekly Influenza Proxy (RR 1.172, IC: 1.097-1.251). Influenza transmission in Spain is influenced by variations in meteorological variables as temperature, absolute humidity, or the amount of rainfall.

Exceso de mortalidad relacionado con la gripe en España en el invierno de 2012 / Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012

Objetivo: El sistema de monitorización de la mortalidad diaria en España y el programa European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action detectaron un exceso de mortalidad en España en febrero y marzo de 2012. El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar el papel que puede atribuirse a la gripe como factor de sobremortalidad en ese periodo. Métodos: Se estudiaron los excesos de mortalidad por todas las causas en el periodo 2006-2012 utilizando series temporales en el sistema de vigilancia de la mortalidad diaria español y mediante regresión de Poisson en el sistema de vigilancia de la mortalidad europeo y en un modelo que estima la mortalidad atribuible a la gripe. Los excesos de mortalidad por gripe y neumonía atribuibles a la gripe se estudiaron con un modelo Serfling modificado. Para detectar los periodos de exceso se comparó la mortalidad observada con la esperada. Resultados: En febrero y marzo de 2012, en los sistemas de monitorización de mortalidad español y europeo se detectó un exceso de mortalidad de 8110 y 10.872 defunciones (razón de mortalidad: 1,22, intervalo de confianza del 95% [IC95%]: 1,21-1,23, y 1,32, IC95%: 1,29-1,31, respectivamente). El modelo que estima la mortalidad atribuible a la gripe identificó en la temporada 2011-2012 el máximo porcentaje (97%) de defunciones atribuibles a la gripe en mayores de 64 años con respecto al total de la mortalidad asociada a la gripe (13.822 defunciones). La tasa de excesos de defunciones por gripe y neumonía y causas respiratorias en mayores de 64 años, obtenida con el modelo Serfling, fue máxima en la temporada 2011-2012: 18,07 y 77,20 defunciones por 100.000 habitantes, respectivamente. Conclusiones: Uno de los principales incrementos significativos de la mortalidad acontecidos en España en los inviernos de los últimos años, en mayores de 64 años, fue detectado por los sistemas de monitorización de mortalidad español y europeo en la temporada 2011-2012, coincidiendo en el tiempo con una tardía temporada gripal, con predominio de virus A(H3N2), y una ola de bajas temperaturas. Este estudio muestra que la gripe pudo ser uno de los principales factores contribuyentes al exceso de mortalidad observado en el invierno de 2012 en España (AU)

Objective: An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action» program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. Methods: Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. Results: In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Conclusion: A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess observed in the winter of 2012 in Spain (AU)

[Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012]. / Exceso de mortalidad relacionado con la gripe en España en el invierno de 2012.

OBJECTIVE: An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action¼ program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. METHODS: Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. RESULTS: In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. CONCLUSION: A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess observed in the winter of 2012 in Spain.